Knockout Craps System
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EASY BLACKJACK COUNTING SYSTEMS
By Henry Tamburin
If you are a recreational blackjack player, I have some good news for you. You can elevate your game a notch by leaning any number of easy-to-learn-and-use card counting systems that can be mastered in about the same time it takes to master basic strategy. Why go through the trouble of doing this? That is because you the have the potential to save $20,000 or more over your lifetime of playing blackjack.
Assume you’re going to play 10,000 hands of blackjack per year (assuming 100 hands per hour, and 100 hours of blackjack per year) for the next 25 years. If your average bet is a modest $10 per hand, you will have wagered $2,500,000. If you never bothered to learn the basic strategy and play by intuition, you are expected to lose $50,000, assuming a disadvantage of 2%. If instead you play basic strategy perfectly, you are expected to lose $12,500 (assuming a 0.5% disadvantage). Now let’s assume you take my advice, learn a simple card counting system, and have a modest 0.3% advantage (the latter could be slightly more or less depending upon the number of decks of cards, the rules, and the bet spread that you use). We’ll assume the total amount of your wagers over the 25 years is the same ($2,500,000). Your expectation is to win (not lose) $7500 with your modest 0.3% edge over the house, Now what would you rather do, lose $12,500 or possibly more money or win $7500?
Now that I hopefully have your attention, I’m going to briefly summarize five simple card-counting systems, including a reference so that you can get more information on any system.
Ace-10 Front Count
Fred Renzey developed this counting system and it appears in his book Blackjack Bluebook II. The Ace/10 Front Count is a way to gauge the strength of a six-deck shoe game after two decks have been dealt. If the remaining decks in the shoe are Ace/10 rich, you bet more the rest of the shoe. Here’s how it works. After the shuffle, you add up all the Aces and 10s that were dealt out during the first two decks. There are twenty Aces and 10s in a deck of cards or 40 in two decks. Anytime there are 36 or fewer Aces and 10s dealt after the first two decks, you will have a slight edge and you will bet more for the rest of the shoe. (Consult Renzey’s book for details on how much to bet and how to vary your playing strategy depending on the number of Aces/10s in your Front Count.)
Speed Count
Dan Pronovost developed this system and you can read about it in the book Beat Blackjack Now! by Frank Scoblete. The key metric in Speed Count is the number of low cards per hand (on average there are 2.71 cards per hand, and one of them is a low card). The way Speed Count works is as follows. You start your Speed Count at 30 (two-deck game) or 27 (six-deck game) following the shuffle. You wait until a player completes his hand and then you add one to your Speed Count for every low card (i.e., 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) in the hand. You do this for very hand including the dealer’s hand. At the end of the round, you subtract one for every hand played. When the Speed Count rises to 31 or higher, you have the advantage and you should bet more (likewise when the Speed Count is less than 31, the player is at a disadvantage and should be the minimum. (Consult Scoblete’s book for details on the betting methodology plus when to make the Insurance bet and when to leave the table based on the Speed Count.)
Ace/Five Count
The Wizard of Odds, Michael Shackleford, has a simple Ace/Five on his blackjack page (Appendix 17) on his site www.wizardofodds.com. With the Ace/Five count, you start your count at zero after the shuffle and make a minimum bet. For each five dealt, you add one to your count. For each Ace dealt, you subtract one. When your count gets to two or more you bet more. If the count is one or lower, you make your minimum bet. (Check Shackleford’s site for details on the bet spread and player’s edges.)
Rookie Knock-Out System
This unbalanced counting system is a simplified version of the full-blown preferred Knock Out System described in the book Knock-Out Blackjack by Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs. You only make two bets with this system, a small bet when you don’t have the edge and a larger bet when the edge swings in your favor. With the Knock-Out system, you add one every 2 through 7 card dealt and you subtract one for every 10-value card and Ace dealt. For a six-deck game, your initial running count after the shuffle is -20 and you bet when your running count is below minus 4 and you bet big when your running count is at or above minus 4. (Consult the book for details on the bet spread, and how to use the system in single- double-, and eight-deck games.)
Even though you will have a slight advantage over the casino with any of the above systems, this doesn’t mean you will win every time you play. If you play these systems accurately, you will win in the long run, even though in the short run your bankroll will fluctuate and sustain losing sessions. It’s important, therefore, that you not overbet in relation to your bankroll; otherwise, you risk the chance of losing your bankroll during the “negative swings.” As Vencura and Fuchs eloquently said it in their book, “You want to sure that you remain in the game for the long run.”
Thread Rating:
Pretty intense hate there pal. I'm just sharing what I witnessed.
Thank you for sharing.the bottom line is the final results from testing the system you tested.
you may be surprised that actual casino dice rolls and computer generated dice rolls will still show a very close expected value and variance for the same length of play.
is the system you tested a secret?
I would not think it could be something so different or special from the thousands of other craps systems that have already been tested
over the last 100 years or so.
coming next Knockout Craps, Craps Blast and the newest
The Hunter System for Craps
COPYRIGHT © 2013 Silverthorne Publications, Inc.
Sally
350 hours * 3600 = 1,260,000 dice rolls you did all manually.
not believable at all
Sally
Sally, I'm telling the truth. A relative showed up on my doorstep 5 weeks ago jobless, and penniless. He is a gambling addict claiming to have perfected a craps system. I gave him a couch to sleep on and set out to prove him wrong so that he would hopefully give up and get a job. He taught me how to play craps in a few days and I spent literally weeks manually testing his system and eventually systems that I dreamed up. I was highly motivated because I felt the need to prove to my relative that he cannot win at craps in the long run. I am in no way exaggerating. I did in fact play WinCraps nearly non stop for 5 weeks. Many 10 hour days. Many all night sessions.
Thanks for the advice about real casino rolls. I will look into that. If I choose to continue studying craps I will mostly likely purchase a full sized legal craps table, put it in my garage and count actual dice rolls. In my mind it's the only way to know for sure.
Sally, I'm telling the truth.
still I find it hard to believe without any data to see.what we may remember is not always what did happen
almost one roll per second was exactly how many rolls per hour? how can that be calculated without a very large error?you may already know WinCraps can record into one file or many files every roll it makes.
I would have thought you might record the rolls to replay them if needed.
Why not go to a casino, watch a table and write down the rolls in a small notebook. I have done this before.
a good start to your own collection.
After getting back to your computer you can then enter the rolls into WinCraps.
I use Excel to produce the proper formatting for this and just import the data but I think any text file could do this also
or just enter the rolls manually too.
But if your mind is set against anything but actual dice rolls on a real craps table
that places you into a corner that only you can get out of
still have fun
were you successful in convincing your relative to not play into the long run?
Sally
still I find it hard to believe without any data to see.
were you successful in convincing your relative to not play into the long run?
While playing the game I became aware of the ability to record rolls and auto-betting but I did not stop playing long enough to dive down those potentially time consuming rabbit holes.
I was only able to convince my relative that he cannot play his system without eventually martingaling beyond his bank roll or the table limit. He has adjusted his views only so far as to believe he can still become wealthy if he wins X out of 10 games.
Knockout Craps System
Can I ask you a question Sally? You seem to be very experienced. Can you tell me how much money you have made overall in all the time you have played craps?I was only able to convince my relative that he cannot play his system without eventually martingaling beyond his bank roll or the table limit. He has adjusted his views only so far as to believe he can still become wealthy if he wins X out of 10 games.
He is actually correct to a certain degree. Players can and do win with a Marty or any type of betting progression.The chances of continuing to win while keep playing gets smaller and smaller and smaller
Most Martys can double a bankroll about 40% chance for the very 1st attempt. It is not difficult to then see some one could do it 3 or 4 or 5 times in a row before a large loss.
They would consider themselves a winner with their system over the casino due to the system, money management and discipline and not just to plain old good luck.
Can I ask you a question Sally?
yesYou seem to be very experienced.
yes I am very, very experienced in many things for being only 24 years young.Can you tell me how much money you have made overall in all the time you have played craps?
I would say after the last and only 5 point Firebet I won, $5 paid $1250 total including my bet back that I happily tipped the dealers with, I am up lifetime at Craps by about $700I play more Roulette, Baccarat and Video Poker than any of the other games.
I feel this could be leading some where.
I am married too and do not yet have any kids.
Practicing on that part.
fun
Sally
While playing the game I became aware of the ability to record rolls and auto-betting but I did not stop playing long enough to dive down those potentially time consuming rabbit holes.
You clicked your mouse over 1 million times in 5 weeks to watch simulated dice roll, and didn't have time to figure out that the software could just do this for you and record the results?
*speechless*
You clicked your mouse over 1 million times in 5 weeks to watch simulated dice roll, and didn't have time to figure out that the software could just do this for you and record the results?
*speechless*
Knockout Craps System Reviews
Isn't that the whole point of the program? I mean...that's what Wincraps DOES...
Isn't that the whole point of the program? I mean...that's what Wincraps DOES...
He could have done it in half the time & gotten a full night's sleep, if he'd used WinCraps's automatic features. Spend 2, 3 days learning & testing out WC & then maybe a day running his program & a day analyzing results. Oh, I see. He was in a hurry, didn't want to waste time learning something that would have saved him time.
You clicked your mouse over 1 million times in 5 weeks to watch simulated dice roll, and didn't have time to figure out that the software could just do this for you and record the results?
*speechless*